Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58c5…5c33 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%22W / 33L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% $0
world 32% +$2
politics 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% +$2
sports 3% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 8% -9.1%
all 55 +0.6% -8.9% 40% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses22 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage456d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $123 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $26 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $9 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $18 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $6 $0 -6%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $13 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 03 $6 $0 -1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on July 1? Jul 01 $1 $0 -17%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 10 $14 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $7 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $14 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $19 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $39 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 34h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $30 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $30 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.99 · official $38.99 (match) · 162 history records