Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58be…4504 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$445 (-61%) realized −$495 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$344
world 14% −$100
sports 7% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-72.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -70.1% -72.9% 14% 14% -82.3%
≤30d 7 -70.1% -72.9% 14% 14% -82.3%
≤90d 7 -70.1% -72.9% 14% 14% -82.3%
all 7 -70.1% -72.9% 14% 14% -82.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.9% 14% -82.3%
10% -75.5% 14% -84.0%
15% -77.9% 14% -85.6%
20% -80.1% 14% -87.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$82 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$495
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 9¢ 27¢ $20 $60 +$40 (+200%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 26¢ $15 $50 +$35 (+231%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 15h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $48 24h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 40¢ $51 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $201 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.84 · official $213.90 · 15 history records