Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58bd…0744 world 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
other 24% −$4
sports 18% −$1
politics 14% −$2
economics 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 +1.5% -8.2% 36% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 74 +0.4% -9.1% 31% 3% -9.6%
all 83 -2.8% -12.0% 35% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage525d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 79¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $49 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $39 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $71 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $86 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $63 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $116 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $36 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $80 −$5 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $48 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $163 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 +$1 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $43 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $17 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $87 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $79 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $123 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $9 7m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 7m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $26 7m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $8 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $33 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $19 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $17 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $8 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.73 · official $38.71 (match) · 334 history records