Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58b6…bee1 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$36
other 31% +$5
sports 19% +$2
economics 8% $0
politics 4% −$2
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 -0.6% -10.0% 36% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 43 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 2% -10.0%
all 84 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.9%
10% -18.0% 5% -18.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage300d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $50 +$3 +7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $189 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $67 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 19 $87 −$2 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $87 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $62 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $137 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $118 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $129 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $186 −$37 -20%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $62 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $67 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $64 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $20 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $61 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $19 −$3 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $64 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $5 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $683 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $622 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $517 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $622 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $683 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $17 +$6 +34%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $5 $0 +10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $27 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $1 $0 +33%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $71 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $29 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $24 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $50 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $60 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $61 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $61 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $61 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $67 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $67 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $59 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $67 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $61 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $61 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $67 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $67 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $36 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.49 · official $70.96 (match) · 495 history records