Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58b5…67fc other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 251L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 23% −$22
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage143d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $662 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $307 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $560 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $638 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $142 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $246 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $433 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $361 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $614 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 2h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $6 14h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 15h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 20h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 22h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 30h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 33h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 35h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 36h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 38h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $60 42h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $60 44h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $61 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1513 history records