Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58b4…57f9 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$15
politics 22% −$6
sports 7% −$67
economics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -6.6% -15.5% 5% 3% -9.9%
all 110 -6.6% -15.5% 5% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 3% -9.9%
10% -23.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -31.0% 3% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage91d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $77 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $229 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $71 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $328 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $374 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $365 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $184 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $170 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $542 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $169 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $178 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 29 $188 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $185 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $371 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $368 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $374 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $352 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $375 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 4h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 18h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 22h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 26h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 16d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $21 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.03 · official $115.03 (match) · 336 history records