Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58b3…653c sports 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$47,680 (+10%) realized +$73,818 · open −$26,138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%92W / 318L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,675per market
Trades / day68.8pace
Fees−$7,627est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$11,722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$31,706
other 21% −$46,489
crypto 9% +$8,416
politics 2% +$629
world 2% −$300
finance 0% −$181
economics 0% −$526
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -61.4% -65.1% 14% 13% -83.2%
≤30d 367 -40.9% -46.5% 22% 21% -58.8%
≤90d 410 -40.0% -45.8% 22% 21% -58.3%
all 410 -40.0% -45.8% 22% 21% -58.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.8% 21% -58.3%
10% -50.9% 20% -62.3%
15% ← realistic here -55.7% 19% -65.9%
20% -60.0% 17% -69.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,571) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,164 vs −$2,180 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$11,722
Realized+$73,818
Unrealized−$26,138
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses92 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$7,627
Open positions98
Markets (closed)410 / 279
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$1,675
Trades / day68.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 19¢ 57¢ $1,305 $3,935 +$2,630 (+202%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $4,141 $1,874 −$2,267 (-55%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $175 $823 +$647 (+369%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $78 $617 +$539 (+694%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Over 18¢ 16¢ $450 $388 −$62 (-14%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $853 $384 −$469 (-55%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 18¢ $27 $350 +$323 (+1195%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $134 $197 +$63 (+47%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $107 $190 +$83 (+78%)
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $95 $188 +$93 (+98%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $26 $174 +$148 (+570%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $175 $141 −$34 (-20%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $27 $115 +$88 (+326%)
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $202 $108 −$94 (-46%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $60 $104 +$44 (+74%)
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $206 $104 −$103 (-50%)
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $103 $87 −$17 (-16%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $94 $73 −$22 (-23%)
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $190 $70 −$120 (-63%)
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $132 $66 −$66 (-50%)
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $27 $61 +$34 (+126%)
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $258 $60 −$197 (-77%)
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $328 $55 −$273 (-83%)
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $108 $54 −$54 (-50%)
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $27 $52 +$25 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 309 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 17? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Jun 17 $1,386 −$1,562 -113%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on April 22? Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second place in the first round of Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on April 13? Jun 17 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 17 $1,410 −$1,410 -100%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 17 $4,846 −$4,846 -100%
Ostrava Open: Katie Volynets vs Katie Boulter Jun 17 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 6-12? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elena Rybakina Jun 17 $886 −$886 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,550 on April 14? Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Jun 17 $5,006 −$5,006 -100%
Will Bianca Andreescu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 17 $3 −$4 -126%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Linda Noskova vs Varvara Gracheva Jun 17 $504 −$847 -168%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1,278 −$1,278 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? Jun 17 $71 −$545 -772%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Sloane Stephens Jun 17 $1,989 −$1,989 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Peyton Stearns vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 17 $944 −$944 -100%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will George Forsyth finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 22? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $18 −$7 -40%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 17 $432,107 −$432,107 -100%
Wizards vs. Kings Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 9-15? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 7? Jun 17 $698 −$698 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Katie Volynets vs Diana Shnaider Jun 17 $465 −$465 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Brendan Fraser win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Magda Linette Jun 17 $580 −$580 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on February 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $30 −$38 -126%
Will Carlos Espá finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 1? Jun 17 $541 −$541 -100%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Tereza Valentova vs Ella Seidel Jun 17 $3,990 −$3,990 -100%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in second place in the first round of the 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
San Luis Potosi: Alex Hernandez vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $522 −$522 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 43¢ $2 4m
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 5¢ $42 4m
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 2¢ $38 16m
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $79 21m
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24m
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 28m
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 29m
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 29m
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 29m
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 47m
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 51m
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,722.45 · official $11,722.46 (match) · 3500 history records