Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58b0…2ecb crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,053 (-8%) realized −$1,053 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate77%47W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$477
7 days+$547
14 days+$547
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +7.5% -2.7% 92% 54% -0.8%
≤30d 61 -1.6% -10.9% 77% 54% -10.0%
≤90d 61 -1.6% -10.9% 77% 54% -10.0%
all 61 -1.6% -10.9% 77% 54% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 54% -10.0%
10% -19.5% 38% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 20% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$196 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses47 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$210
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $306 +$107 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $307 +$157 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $304 +$58 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $304 +$68 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $304 +$66 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $302 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $302 +$32 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $252 +$39 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $251 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $151 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $126 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $126 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $203 +$60 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 25 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $436 −$436 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 25 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 25 $329 +$154 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 25 $254 +$67 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 25 $255 +$92 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 25 $255 +$88 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 25 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 24 $252 +$24 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $76 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 24 $185 +$87 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 24 $251 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 22 $305 +$95 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 22 $253 +$56 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 22 $45 +$25 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 22 $192 +$40 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 22 $193 +$46 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3AM ET May 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 22 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 22 $204 +$64 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 22 $256 +$109 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 22 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4PM ET May 21 $203 +$52 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $306 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $303 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $307 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $303 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $304 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $304 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $304 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $202 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $307 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $302 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $303 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $302 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $252 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $126 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $302 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $251 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $151 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $126 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $126 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $203 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $309 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $436 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $143 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $329 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $254 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $255 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records