Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58af…3b0a other 30 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-8%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$3
crypto 31% −$4
sports 10% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -36.3% -42.3% 14% 7% -33.3%
≤30d 25 -33.2% -39.5% 28% 20% -16.8%
≤90d 25 -33.2% -39.5% 28% 20% -16.8%
all 25 -33.2% -39.5% 28% 20% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 20% -16.8%
10% -45.3% 20% -24.8%
15% -50.6% 20% -32.1%
20% -55.4% 16% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-06-14? Yes 88¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -78%
Alistair Johnston: 1+ assists Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Alexis Vega: 2+ goals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Alexis Vega: 1+ goals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $17 +$8 +48%
Will Norway vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 19¢ $1 34h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $1 34h
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up $1 5d
Alistair Johnston: 1+ assists SELL Yes $0 5d
Alistair Johnston: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $2 6d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 13¢ $1 6d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 14¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Alexis Vega: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Alexis Vega: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
South Africa leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.24 · official $38.26 (match) · 71 history records