Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58ac…7e1f sports 570 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$835 (-7%) realized −$817 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%221W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$793
other 5% −$75
world 0% +$32
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 44 -18.7% -26.5% 39% 39% -13.9%
≤90d 89 -44.8% -50.1% 26% 26% -22.9%
all 567 -15.5% -23.5% 39% 36% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 36% -15.3%
10% -30.9% 35% -23.4%
15% -37.5% 33% -30.8%
20% -43.7% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$817
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses221 / 346
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)567 / 570
History coverage198d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 56¢ 92¢ $48 $80 +$32 (+65%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 49¢ $57 $8 −$50 (-87%)
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) New Zealand $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 +$56 +106%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$53 -98%
Virtus Bologna vs. Aquila Basket Trento May 26 $26 −$25 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Monaco vs. Bourg-en-Bresse May 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Pallacanestro Trieste May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Nanterre vs. Le Mans May 25 $1 $0 +50%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 24 $25 +$24 +98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $25 +$45 +182%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $25 +$39 +156%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $22 −$21 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $67 +$76 +114%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Derthona Basket vs. Reyer Venezia May 22 $15 −$14 -96%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $15 +$11 +72%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $15 +$15 +97%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 21 $50 +$30 +61%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $188 +$98 +52%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $19 −$12 -59%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $20 +$29 +146%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $44 +$36 +83%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $102 +$82 +81%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $43 −$32 -75%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 +$20 +197%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $20 +$20 +101%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Pallacanestro Trieste May 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. Wuerzburg May 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet May 18 $218 +$126 +58%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $217 −$212 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $123 −$119 -97%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Copa Colsanitas: Marie Bouzkova vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Mar 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Marie Bouzkova vs. Ana Sofia Sanchez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Copa Colsanitas: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Sofia Costoulas Mar 31 $17 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $49 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $58 1h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL New Zealand $2 2h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand $2 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $108 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $52 5h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $30 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $24 8h
Virtus Bologna vs. Aquila Basket Trento BUY Aquila Basket Trento 52¢ $11 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 43¢ $10 20d
Virtus Bologna vs. Aquila Basket Trento BUY Aquila Basket Trento 53¢ $15 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 42¢ $10 20d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 44¢ $10 20d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 47¢ $5 20d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 39¢ $3 20d
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Pallacanestro Trieste SELL Pallacanestro Trieste $0 21d
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Pallacanestro Trieste BUY Pallacanestro Trieste 18¢ $1 21d
Nanterre vs. Le Mans SELL Le Mans 15¢ $2 21d
Nanterre vs. Le Mans BUY Le Mans 10¢ $1 21d
Nanterre vs. Le Mans BUY Le Mans 10¢ $0 21d
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Pallacanestro Trieste BUY Pallacanestro Trieste 23¢ $4 21d
Monaco vs. Bourg-en-Bresse BUY Monaco 54¢ $10 21d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner BUY Aurora 47¢ $10 22d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner BUY Aurora 51¢ $15 22d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner BUY PARIVISION 26¢ $10 22d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner BUY PARIVISION 44¢ $15 22d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 38¢ $25 22d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 43¢ $15 22d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $11 23d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $3 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.48 · official $87.48 (match) · 1624 history records