Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x58aa…a481 sports 790 markets active 1h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67,701 (+6%) realized +$61,339 · open +$6,362
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%478W / 293L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,412per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$3,164est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$45,733now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$949
7 days+$6,346
14 days+$9,002
30 days+$27,763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$21,499
sports 31% +$9,280
world 15% +$22,575
crypto 9% −$1,636
politics 6% +$11,027
finance 2% +$1,241
tech 1% +$584
culture 1% −$1,278
economics 1% +$454
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.1% +1.4% 56% 48% +0.9%
≤30d 56 +14.7% +3.8% 59% 52% +8.7%
≤90d 325 +8.4% -1.9% 62% 43% -1.3%
all 771 +3.7% -6.2% 62% 39% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 39% -4.6%
10% -15.1% 31% -13.7%
15% -23.3% 25% -22.1%
20% -30.9% 20% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,528) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$578 vs −$747 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$45,733
Realized+$61,339
Unrealized+$6,362
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses478 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3,164
Open positions19
Markets (closed)771 / 790
History coverage362d
Avg bet$1,412
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 771 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 94¢ $4,479 $7,912 +$3,433 (+77%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $5,113 $5,989 +$876 (+17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 88¢ $4,164 $5,500 +$1,336 (+32%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 52¢ 48¢ $4,608 $4,293 −$315 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 82¢ $750 $3,768 +$3,018 (+402%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3,484 $3,440 −$44 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $3,682 $3,325 −$357 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 88¢ 92¢ $2,670 $2,798 +$128 (+5%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 53¢ 55¢ $2,688 $2,742 +$54 (+2%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 60¢ 60¢ $2,440 $2,441 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $1,786 $1,434 −$352 (-20%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $1,827 $903 −$924 (-51%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $684 $665 −$19 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 66¢ 100¢ $150 $227 +$77 (+51%)
FaZe roster change Before GTA VI? No 43¢ 12¢ $600 $176 −$424 (-71%)
Will Jean Silva fight Alexander Volkanovski next? Yes 56¢ 17¢ $188 $57 −$131 (-70%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 84¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+20%)
Printr FDV above $80M one day after launch? No 77¢ 69¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,519 +$1,055 +69%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5,637 −$490 -9%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,280 +$1,738 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $610 −$600 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,027 +$1,643 +81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,557 −$2,813 -62%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,405 −$98 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $100 −$50 -50%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $9,933 +$118 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,249 −$2,222 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,539 +$2,669 +105%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,261 +$79 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $728 +$248 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $507 +$386 +76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,013 −$877 -87%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1,900 +$2,136 +112%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $4,069 −$7 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,843 +$2,014 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $2,806 −$11 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,379 −$3,079 -91%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $656 +$453 +69%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $2,082 +$722 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $2,096 −$741 -35%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $107 −$60 -56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2,000 +$1,227 +61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,563 +$2,906 +113%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 08 $572 −$572 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P Jun 08 $1,621 −$1,621 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 08 $1,773 −$1,773 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 08 $1,776 −$1,776 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2,709 −$2,709 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $3,059 +$5,783 +189%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $3,021 +$244 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $7,951 +$4,671 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $4,563 +$1,067 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,528 −$657 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $4,000 +$2,053 +51%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $8,617 −$3,924 -46%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5,763 +$9,578 +166%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $120 −$5 -4%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? May 30 $103 +$86 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $1,518 +$998 +66%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3,598 +$2,321 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,036 −$1,598 -78%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,028 +$1,646 +81%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5,073 +$1,560 +31%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $3,045 +$2,895 +95%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $1,002 +$72 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 47¢ $2,519 1h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,519 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $508 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 85¢ $2,543 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 9h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $2,280 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,743 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,025 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,531 30h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,307 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $66 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $226 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $109 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $359 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,050 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 44h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $686 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $50 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $5,384 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,732.87 · official $45,732.88 (match) · 2932 history records