Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58a9…e853 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-11%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -2.1% -11.4% 66% 66% -9.3%
≤30d 46 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 59% -18.1%
≤90d 55 -18.9% -26.6% 53% 53% -25.9%
all 55 -18.9% -26.6% 53% 53% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 53% -25.9%
10% -33.6% 51% -33.0%
15% -40.0% 49% -39.4%
20% -45.9% 5% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage67d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records