Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x58a5…ec93 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$76 (-4%) realized +$0 · open −$76
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$76
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 75% +34.5%
≤90d 4 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 75% +34.5%
all 4 +45.1% +31.3% 100% 75% +34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.3% 75% +34.5%
10% +18.7% 75% +21.6%
15% +7.3% 50% +9.9%
20% -3.3% 50% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,715
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage8d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $441 $444 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $450 $431 −$19 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $450 $430 −$20 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 80¢ 72¢ $450 $410 −$40 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $396 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $18 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $433 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $74 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $117 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $344 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $24 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $24 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,715.12 · official $1,715.12 (match) · 33 history records