Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

58 0x58a3…c0ac other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$24 (+7%) realized +$29 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+36.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+50.6%	+36.2%	100%	100%	+36.2%
≤30d	1	+50.6%	+36.2%	100%	100%	+36.2%
≤90d	1	+50.6%	+36.2%	100%	100%	+36.2%
all	1	+50.6%	+36.2%	100%	100%	+36.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.2%	100%	+36.2%
10%	+23.2%	100%	+23.2%
15%	+11.3%	100%	+11.3%
20%	+0.4%	100%	+0.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage

Net worth$210

Realized+$29

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage100d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	90¢	$198	$197	−$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	96¢	96¢	$9	$9	+$0 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	57¢	47¢	$4	$3	−$1 (-18%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	61¢	16¢	$5	$1	−$4 (-74%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$115	+$58	+51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$172	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$172	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$27	5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	96¢	$9	22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$115	23h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	BUY No	57¢	$4	97d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY Yes	61¢	$5	100d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.46 · official $210.46 (match) · 7 history records