Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
58 0x58a1…b4ba crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%49W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$7
crypto 11% +$1
other 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 57 +0.1% -9.5% 86% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses49 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage526d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in July? Aug 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $55 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $5,832 −$6 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Mar 21 $27 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $34 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 61d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $47 63d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $21 92d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 99¢ $45 94d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 122d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $51 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $52 151d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 182d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $47 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $50 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 273d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 301d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 301d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $39 302d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 335d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $55 335d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.84 · official $66.84 (match) · 120 history records