Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x58a0…fb4f
other · 27 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$61 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage562d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 0 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Liverpool wins the Premier League? No $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 13 $0 $0 -70%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? May 10 $330 −$60 -18%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 21 $0 $0 -40%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 29 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 29 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$60
sports 19% $0
politics 9% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 56d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 56d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 79d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 79d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 94d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 94d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 109d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 114d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $10 143d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $10 143d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 180d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 180d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 205d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 205d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 232d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 232d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 263d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 264d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 294d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 294d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 294d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 333d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 333d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 333d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 334d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 367d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -12.8% -21.1% 0% 0% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 0% -18.9%
10% -28.7% 0% -26.7%
15% -35.6% 0% -33.7%
20% -41.9% 0% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records