Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x589f…2992
sports · 33 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$66 +33%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$64 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$30
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 4 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$25
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 61¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Golden State Valkyries 83¢ 93¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 51¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 48¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $7 +$7 +95%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $7 +$9 +129%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 +$10 +69%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$28 +276%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 +$6 +113%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +50%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $5 +$6 +114%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $5 +$3 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $5 +$4 +87%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 +$5 +90%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 +$6 +124%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% +$47
other 20% +$3
crypto 13% +$7
tech 3% +$4
politics 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7 49m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 83¢ $7 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 43¢ $7 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $7 2h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $7 3h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $6 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 59¢ $7 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $7 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $7 28h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 45¢ $5 4d
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $8 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 5d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 7d
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn BUY No 56¢ $5 7d
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7d
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire BUY Phoenix Mercury 46¢ $5 7d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Dallas Wings 59¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $5 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $5 9d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 9d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.3% -7.4% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤30d 29 +23.8% +12.0% 62% 62% +23.7%
≤90d 29 +23.8% +12.0% 62% 62% +23.7%
all 29 +23.8% +12.0% 62% 62% +23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 62% +23.7%
10% +1.3% 62% +11.9%
15% -8.5% 62% +1.0%
20% -17.5% 62% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.92 · official $27.12 · 65 history records