Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x589a…8dc5 sports 468 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,891 (-4%) realized −$2,187 · open −$446
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%175W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$616est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,179
7 days+$1,352
14 days−$87
30 days−$3,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,322
other 7% +$14
crypto 1% −$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 43% +2.4%
≤30d 372 -16.3% -24.2% 40% 40% -17.3%
≤90d 435 -16.1% -24.1% 38% 38% -17.2%
all 460 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 38% -14.2%
10% -30.7% 37% -22.4%
15% -37.4% 36% -29.9%
20% -43.6% 32% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$75 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$1,406
Realized−$2,187
Unrealized−$446
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses175 / 285
Est. fees paid−$616
Open positions7
Markets (closed)460 / 468
History coverage126d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 12¢ 100¢ $88 $742 +$654 (+744%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $220 $233 +$13 (+6%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 47¢ 28¢ $315 $191 −$124 (-39%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $107 −$3 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $67 $57 −$10 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 25¢ $200 $4 −$196 (-98%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs RED Canids 40¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Aurora 23¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Atlanta Braves 49¢ $421 $0 −$421 (-100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 15¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs BESTIA 69¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs NRG 36¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 48¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 21¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Eternal Fire 25¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOS 45¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Valorant: SaD Esports vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage YFP Gaming 50¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 72¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Team Nemesis $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Ursa 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Poker Face 10¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $325 +$290 +89%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $199 −$195 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 +$301 +99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 +$166 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $91 +$113 +125%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $34 +$58 +173%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $162 +$71 +44%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $95 +$73 +78%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $203 +$209 +103%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $106 +$215 +203%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $103 +$59 +57%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $39 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $203 +$261 +128%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $200 +$206 +103%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $93 +$107 +114%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $150 −$148 -98%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $48 −$48 -99%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $102 +$113 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $159 +$121 +76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $98 +$81 +82%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $98 −$96 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $166 −$163 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $197 −$194 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $185 +$115 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $99 +$85 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $93 +$68 +73%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $135 −$133 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $189 −$107 -57%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $26 −$26 -98%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame (BO3) - The International North America Open Jun 11 $29 +$5 +17%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 11 $34 −$2 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $239 −$184 -77%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 12¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $204 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $320 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $615 2h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $69 4h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 40¢ $127 4h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $199 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $325 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $606 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $305 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $319 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 40¢ $102 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $203 12h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 36¢ $50 13h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 14h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $91 20h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $102 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $74 20h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY G2 Minnesota 20¢ $26 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes $20 22h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 22h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $34 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $233 22h
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY FaZe Vegas 27¢ $31 22h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $168 22h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $412 22h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $95 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,405.64 · official $1,406.13 (match) · 1065 history records