Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5899…bc50 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-53%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 38% -41.7%
≤30d 8 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 38% -41.7%
≤90d 8 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 38% -41.7%
all 8 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 38% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 38% -41.7%
10% -46.7% 25% -47.3%
15% -51.9% 25% -52.4%
20% -56.6% 25% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records