Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
58 0x5899…d179 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$103 (+15%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$138
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$13
other 27% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +54.7% +40.0% 90% 90% +31.7%
≤30d 24 +26.3% +14.3% 71% 71% +4.6%
≤90d 24 +26.3% +14.3% 71% 71% +4.6%
all 24 +26.3% +14.3% 71% 71% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 71% +4.6%
10% +3.4% 71% -5.4%
15% -6.6% 67% -14.5%
20% -15.8% 54% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage12d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $31 +$44 +146%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$17 +57%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$15 +50%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$28 +93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $31 24h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $30 8d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $30 8d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $30 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $51 9d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $51 9d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $30 9d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $10 10d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 11d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 12d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 12d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.69 · official $79.69 (match) · 43 history records