Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
58 0x5893…f124 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$4
other 26% −$2
world 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 0% -9.5%
all 11 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage14d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $505 $505 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $502 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $516 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $486 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $533 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $428 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $468 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $558 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.75 · official $504.75 (match) · 28 history records