Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x5892…8bf3 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,787 (-4%) realized −$1,870 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate74%50W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3,783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$117
14 days+$164
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$516
other 18% −$2,275
world 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 7% -8.7%
≤30d 49 -10.6% -19.1% 88% 2% -10.0%
≤90d 68 -15.2% -23.3% 74% 7% -13.1%
all 68 -15.2% -23.3% 74% 7% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 7% -13.1%
10% -30.6% 6% -21.4%
15% -37.3% 6% -29.0%
20% -43.5% 6% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$270 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$3,783
Realized−$1,870
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses50 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions4
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage47d
Avg bet$698
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Japan 97¢ 100¢ $2,900 $2,984 +$84 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $500 $500 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 25 $500 +$5 +1%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 25 $500 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Brazil? Jun 25 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Iraq? Jun 23 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $401 +$48 +12%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 22 $600 +$3 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,000 +$12 +1%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 20 $500 +$4 +1%
Spread: Scotland (-3.5) Jun 20 $600 +$1 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-3.5) Jun 19 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 18 $500 +$6 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $500 +$9 +2%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $700 +$4 +1%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $500 +$3 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,001 +$20 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $1,001 +$20 +2%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,100 +$4 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,500 +$1 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2,000 +$4 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $500 +$16 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $599 +$6 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,400 +$14 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1,500 +$3 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $500 +$15 +3%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $501 +$31 +6%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $601 +$20 +3%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $1,001 +$31 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $1,500 +$11 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $1,001 +$20 +2%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1,501 +$35 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $500 +$15 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $1,001 +$21 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 02 $1,501 +$21 +1%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ Jun 01 $1,000 +$14 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $400 +$16 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $601 +$18 +3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $410 −$403 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $300 +$12 +4%
Spread: Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-2.5) May 25 $230 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Japan 97¢ $2,903 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Brazil 98¢ $500 27h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Brazil? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 27h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Morocco 99¢ $500 27h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $200 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Iraq? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 3d
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY France 100¢ $1,000 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 4d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $1,000 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $300 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $100 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 IR Iran? BUY No 99¢ $600 4d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $1,000 4d
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 99¢ $1,000 5d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $1,000 6d
Spread: Scotland (-3.5) BUY Morocco 100¢ $600 6d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Morocco 99¢ $500 6d
Spread: Qatar (-3.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $2,000 7d
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $1,000 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $500 8d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $500 8d
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Austria 99¢ $500 8d
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Austria 100¢ $500 9d
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $700 9d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY France 99¢ $500 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 9d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 98¢ $400 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 98¢ $600 11d
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $1,000 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,783.28 · official $3,783.28 (match) · 156 history records