Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5891…4912 crypto 525 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$747 (-1%) realized −$747 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate88%463W / 61L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$249
14 days−$315
30 days−$616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$514
sports 12% +$52
other 10% −$332
world 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +2.1% -7.6% 86% 44% -14.8%
≤30d 107 -0.8% -10.3% 83% 39% -14.0%
≤90d 171 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 37% -11.8%
all 524 -0.7% -10.2% 88% 22% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 22% -10.4%
10% -18.8% 10% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 5% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$63 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$747
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses463 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)524 / 525
History coverage137d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 +$14 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 −$42 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$16 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $66 +$7 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$7 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $105 +$4 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $101 +$4 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $92 +$9 +10%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $88 +$5 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 +$13 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$4 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $58 +$14 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $72 +$17 +24%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $74 −$2 -2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $58 +$16 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $376 −$375 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $354 +$22 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $337 +$17 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $239 +$10 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $81 +$6 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $146 +$9 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $122 +$28 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $234 +$34 +14%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $218 +$16 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $197 +$21 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $20 +$3 +17%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $188 +$5 +3%
Spread: Nigeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $185 +$4 +2%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $47 +$29 +62%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $80 +$17 +21%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $130 +$7 +5%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $120 +$9 +7%
Denmark leading at halftime? Jun 07 $105 +$4 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 +$2 +15%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $41 +$10 +25%
Argentina vs. Honduras: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $90 +$15 +17%
Spread: Romania (-1.5) Jun 07 $79 +$10 +13%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 06 $77 +$2 +3%
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) Jun 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $66 +$9 +14%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $58 +$9 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $79 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $60 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $47 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $47 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $89 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $73 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $66 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $59 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 94¢ $109 10h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $105 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $105 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $101 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $101 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $92 33h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 33h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $86 34h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 34h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $88 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $75 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.72 · official $78.72 (match) · 1130 history records