Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
58 0x588f…0e2d other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$253 (-35%) realized −$251 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$2
sports 34% −$240
weather 4% −$9
world 3% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -13.2% -21.4% 86% 0% -79.7%
all 11 -17.4% -25.3% 82% 0% -70.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 0% -70.4%
10% -32.4% 0% -73.2%
15% -38.9% 0% -75.8%
20% -44.9% 0% -78.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$124 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage179d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $346 $343 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $245 −$240 -98%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of February 202 Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026? Apr 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Palantir reach $258 in January? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Jan 09 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.33 · official $343.33 (match) · 22 history records