Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x588d…3f41 sports 937 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,721 (-7%) realized −$8,507 · open −$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%420W / 611L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1,109est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6,348
other 0% +$473
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -75.5% -77.8% 11% 11% -72.2%
≤30d 335 -39.6% -45.4% 27% 26% -32.8%
≤90d 854 -29.0% -35.7% 32% 31% -32.6%
all 1031 -2.0% -11.4% 41% 39% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 39% -19.5%
10% -19.8% 37% -27.2%
15% -27.6% 33% -34.2%
20% -34.7% 28% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +19% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$100 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$8,507
Unrealized−$214
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses420 / 611
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,109
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1031 / 937
History coverage113d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Team Bald 64¢ 100¢ $201 $313 +$113 (+56%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 54¢ 14¢ $408 $106 −$302 (-74%)
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) Atrix Esports 6¢ 26¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+325%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner Infinite 26¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 306 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - ESL Challenge Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs The Suspect - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Pcific Esports (+1.5) Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: SINQU vs BoyBand - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs InControl (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi Jun 23 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs FC Famalicão Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $224 −$224 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Brute (+1.5) Jun 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Valorant: HGE Esports vs NOVO Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Clos Jun 23 $772 −$772 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 23 $325 −$325 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Formulation Gaming (BO3) - VCL NORTH/ Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Oldboys - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $154 −$154 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 23 $237 −$237 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Time Waves vs Skele - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $127 −$127 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs SPARTA - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $257 −$257 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $111 −$111 -100%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Playoffs Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs FURIA fe - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5) Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs FC Famalicão Esports (+1.5) Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs against All authority - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 64¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner SELL Infinite 28¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 26¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 54¢ $147 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 54¢ $266 1h
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 6¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 6¢ $0 5h
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 6¢ $0 5h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY OXEN 20¢ $43 14h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 14¢ $23 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 12¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $0 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $7 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $0 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $2 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $0 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $0 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $0 15h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 65¢ $265 15h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 7¢ $6 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $22 16h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 5¢ $4 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 35¢ $1 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 35¢ $70 17h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Over 48¢ $79 17h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 34¢ $28 20h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 19¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.18 · official $424.18 (match) · 3000 history records