Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x588d…a246 sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$546 (-3%) realized −$546 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate27%42W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$116
14 days−$102
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$377
crypto 17% −$46
other 14% −$131
politics 5% −$34
world 4% −$44
tech 2% +$2
economics 1% +$14
culture 1% −$7
finance 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -9.0% -17.6% 17% 2% -16.0%
≤30d 68 -8.0% -16.8% 19% 4% -18.4%
≤90d 103 -8.2% -16.9% 16% 4% -13.3%
all 155 -7.6% -16.4% 27% 10% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 10% -12.5%
10% -24.4% 6% -20.8%
15% -31.7% 3% -28.5%
20% -38.4% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$546
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses42 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage550d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 20 $42 −$12 -28%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 20 $9 −$4 -46%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership Jun 20 $34 $0 -1%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 20 $45 −$1 -1%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 19 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 −$2 -11%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$2 -1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $49 −$30 -61%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $71 +$1 +1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 -1%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +9%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 19 $184 −$5 -3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $91 +$5 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 18 $58 +$3 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 18 $14 −$2 -15%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Jun 18 $14 $0 -3%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $128 −$18 -14%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 16 $0 $0 -2%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $6 +$7 +106%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -47%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -21%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -16%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $29 −$10 -34%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $24 −$3 -12%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $43 −$7 -16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -89%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL No 62¢ $30 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 60¢ $1 1h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership SELL No 69¢ $34 1h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election SELL Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 69¢ $7 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 69¢ $14 4h
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership BUY No 69¢ $14 4h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY Yes 78¢ $11 9h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY Yes 78¢ $28 9h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les BUY Yes 18¢ $9 14h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 14h
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 14h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 15h
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 16h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 17h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 18h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $35 21h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 18¢ $9 24h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 24h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 21¢ $10 24h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 27h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 28h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 18¢ $9 30h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 32h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Down 18¢ $9 32h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 33h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 447 history records