Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
58 0x588c…ca21 other 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$188 (-6%) realized −$131 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%91W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$35
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$81
politics 20% −$83
sports 16% −$174
crypto 12% −$118
world 5% +$168
economics 2% +$1
culture 1% −$24
tech 1% −$18
finance 1% −$12
weather 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.6% -4.4% 67% 67% +27.5%
≤30d 18 +86.9% +69.1% 56% 56% +8.2%
≤90d 34 +79.2% +62.1% 44% 44% +8.5%
all 285 +14.9% +4.0% 32% 32% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 32% -16.2%
10% -6.0% 31% -24.2%
15% -15.1% 31% -31.5%
20% -23.4% 30% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses91 / 194
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions30
Markets (closed)285 / 315
History coverage602d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 99¢ $10 $34 +$24 (+239%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 80¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+30%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 56¢ 99¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+76%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $8 $15 +$6 (+75%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 15¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+124%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-72%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+78%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 46¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 57¢ 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +110%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$58 +1150%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +114%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $5 +$31 +614%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen Jun 12 $38 +$32 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$11 +453%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 +$66 +1329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 08 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Meta acquire TikTok? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$4 +296%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 24 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 24 $5 +$11 +212%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 23 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 23 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-13? Mar 23 $10 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $28 52m
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $46 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 11d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 11d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 11d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11d
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 11d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 11d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 15¢ $5 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 61¢ $16 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 13d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 13d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $9 73d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 73d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.14 · official $320.94 (match) · 697 history records