Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x588b…ed16 crypto 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$491 (-12%) realized −$487 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%84W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day97.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days−$606
14 days−$606
30 days−$606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$405
other 16% −$94
sports 5% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -22.8% -30.2% 37% 34% -24.9%
≤30d 228 -22.8% -30.2% 37% 34% -24.9%
≤90d 228 -22.8% -30.2% 37% 34% -24.9%
all 228 -22.8% -30.2% 37% 34% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 34% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 26% -32.1%
15% -43.0% 18% -38.7%
20% -48.6% 16% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$487
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses84 / 144
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)228 / 235
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day97.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 81¢ $390 $386 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 83¢ $292 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 81¢ $101 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will DR C BUY 10¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.95 · official $396.98 (match) · 832 history records