Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5886…2e46 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$276 (+5%) realized +$278 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%80W / 38L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$110
14 days+$110
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$80
sports 18% +$282
other 9% −$126
politics 1% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +59.9% +44.7% 69% 62% +4.5%
≤30d 82 +12.2% +1.5% 72% 60% -4.4%
≤90d 90 +8.2% -2.1% 70% 59% -5.5%
all 118 +3.7% -6.1% 68% 57% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 57% -5.7%
10% -15.1% 42% -14.7%
15% -23.3% 31% -22.9%
20% -30.8% 18% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$33 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$278
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses80 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage221d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $222 −$130 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +249%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$100 +196%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$17 -42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 24 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 24 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 23 $72 +$33 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 23 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 23 $71 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 23 $216 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 23 $141 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 23 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 23 $71 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 23 $141 +$21 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 23 $61 −$16 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 23 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 23 $60 +$33 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 23 $102 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 23 $71 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 23 $133 −$70 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $72 +$55 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 22 $102 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 22 $206 +$44 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $139 11h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $92 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 39h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $23 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.08 · official $53.08 (match) · 284 history records