Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5886…fe3b sports 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$11,330 (+115%) realized +$11,330 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +104% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%37W / 138L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$331est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,191
7 days−$1,191
14 days+$397
30 days+$1,514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$10,876
other 3% +$469
crypto 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+84.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 39 +8.7% -1.6% 13% 13% +17.8%
≤90d 110 +148.1% +124.5% 25% 25% +74.8%
all 175 +104.4% +84.9% 21% 21% +50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +84.9% 21% +50.3%
10% +67.2% 21% +35.9%
15% +51.1% 21% +22.8%
20% +36.3% 20% +10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +158% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +104% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +165% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$525 vs −$59 · ×8.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$11,330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses37 / 138
Est. fees paid−$331
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage104d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $151 −$151 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $430 −$430 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $304 −$304 -100%
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $216 −$216 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $639 −$639 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $516 −$516 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $127 −$127 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $55 +$18 +33%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $275 +$3,721 +1353%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $125 −$125 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 +$6 +260%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 09 $275 −$239 -87%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $120 −$120 -100%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
O'Higgins FC vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5 May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 May 30 $120 −$120 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 May 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-15? May 30 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? May 30 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 30 $210 −$210 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v May 23 $91 +$908 +998%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $120 +$1,300 +1083%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $38 +$480 +1250%
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Score May 17 $5 +$14 +289%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $100 +$298 +298%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 May 15 $80 +$1,960 +2450%
Will FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? May 02 $70 +$4,735 +6764%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $15 +$360 +2400%
Abidjan: Michael Geerts vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $17 −$17 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $70 +$2,530 +3614%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $160 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $81 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $2 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $4 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $10 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $0 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $0 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $0 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $2 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $18 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $76 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $1 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over $2 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $106 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $2 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $25 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $90 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $44 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $57 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under $17 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under $4 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under $17 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No $1 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No $72 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No $8 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No $3 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.00 · official $160.00 (match) · 808 history records