Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5882…91b2 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$149 (-1%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$8
politics 25% −$5
sports 14% −$135
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 109 -8.9% -17.6% 14% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 3% -10.3%
10% -25.4% 2% -18.8%
15% -32.6% 1% -26.7%
20% -39.3% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 94
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage129d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $366 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $297 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $349 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $326 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $200 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $182 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $367 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 07 $159 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $391 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $390 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $149 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $333 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $348 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $387 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $146 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $156 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 10h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 10h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $174 25d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $174 26d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 34d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $146 35d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $146 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 53d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $212 61d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $212 63d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $162 63d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $162 63d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 63d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $167 64d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $169 64d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $169 64d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $143 64d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $143 64d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $205 64d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $205 65d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $188 65d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $188 65d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $189 65d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $189 66d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $150 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records