Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5882…7155 crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+0%) realized +$109 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%153W / 3L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$13
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$93
other 0% +$2
tech 0% +$7
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 107 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 156 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$680) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×506.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25808.15 per $1 lost it wins $25808.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$724
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses153 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage287d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $715 $715 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 17? Jun 17 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $714 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $712 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $711 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $711 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $710 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $709 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $709 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $705 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $706 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? Jun 08 $706 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $705 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $704 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $702 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $702 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $701 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 3? Jun 03 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 1? Jun 01 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on May 30? May 31 $699 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 28? May 28 $698 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? May 27 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? May 26 $697 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $697 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? May 23 $696 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? May 22 $235 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 22 $460 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 20? May 20 $694 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $513 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? May 19 $180 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 18? May 19 $692 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 18? May 18 $154 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $692 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $691 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 15? May 15 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $689 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 13? May 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 13? May 14 $539 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 13 $687 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 12? May 12 $686 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $440 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 11? May 11 $245 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 10? May 11 $684 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 10? May 10 $683 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $683 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 7? May 07 $682 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $715 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $150 38h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $565 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $150 40h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $714 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $712 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $711 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $711 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $710 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $709 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $709 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $705 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $706 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $706 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $705 11d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $704 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $703 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $702 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $702 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $701 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $700 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $700 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $699 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $698 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $408 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $697 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $697 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $696 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $235 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $724.46 · official $724.46 (match) · 404 history records