Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5882…55a2 world 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$51,001 (-19%) realized +$6,641 · open −$57,642
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$5,254per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$35,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$902
7 days+$794
14 days−$3,333
30 days+$5,734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$51,965
other 10% −$222
politics 4% +$1,176
tech 1% −$86
finance 1% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.2% -12.5% 89% 33% -2.4%
≤30d 46 -23.3% -30.6% 46% 28% -4.2%
≤90d 48 -20.9% -28.4% 46% 29% -3.5%
all 48 -20.9% -28.4% 46% 29% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 29% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 6% -12.7%
15% -41.5% 6% -21.2%
20% -47.2% 4% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,921) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$960 vs −$556 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$35,363
Realized+$6,641
Unrealized−$57,642
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage85d
Avg bet$5,254
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 40¢ 15¢ $79,012 $29,090 −$49,922 (-63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 22¢ $11,544 $3,918 −$7,626 (-66%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 87¢ $2,375 $2,289 −$86 (-4%)
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? No 78¢ 70¢ $75 $67 −$8 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8,553 −$1,246 -15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$19 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $1,185 +$36 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $7,503 +$289 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $7,135 +$168 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $764 +$139 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 09 $1,304 +$232 +18%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $600 +$33 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $6,883 +$1,124 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $26,796 +$2,138 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $8,018 −$5,191 -65%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2,643 −$2,162 -82%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $500 −$20 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $11 −$4 -33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3,085 +$356 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,000 +$764 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,469 +$184 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 01 $27,704 −$245 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 31 $1,077 +$122 +11%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3,990 −$3,981 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1,149 −$1,130 -98%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 28 $122 −$122 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $5,363 +$13,314 +248%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $24 −$5 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 25 $307 +$23 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 25 $219 −$50 -23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $738 −$126 -17%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $1,921 +$802 +42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 24 $18 −$4 -25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $15 −$3 -20%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 23 $455 +$46 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,017 +$193 +19%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $186 −$11 -6%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $215 +$40 +19%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $267 +$53 +20%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $878 +$1,053 +120%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 04 $222 −$108 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $15 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $8 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $196 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $224 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $56 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $196 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $252 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $193 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $193 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $133 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $67 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $290 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $334 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $147 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $300 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $300 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $500 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $200 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $320 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $224 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $129 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $113 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $237 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,362.64 · official $35,362.64 (match) · 1315 history records