Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5881…bbdb other 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 253L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 24% −$25
politics 9% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
economics 4% −$4
world 3% +$1
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 267 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 267
History coverage134d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $318 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $167 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $164 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $345 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $643 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $202 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $552 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $384 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $227 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $451 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 5h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 14h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $10 22h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 27h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 28h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 29h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $61 38h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $61 39h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 44h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 45h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1391 history records