Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5881…7dc5 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 506d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate80%49W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$26
other 9% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 1% −$11
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 61 -1.9% -11.2% 80% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -10.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

506d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses49 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage506d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 18 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $91 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $91 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? May 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? Mar 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 06 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $114 −$26 -22%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of t Mar 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Feb 25 $118 −$4 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on February 17? Feb 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 12? Feb 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $1 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jack Dorsey confirm he is Satoshi before May? May 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by April 30? Apr 24 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $91 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $91 7d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $91 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $91 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $91 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $91 15d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $90 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $90 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $90 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $90 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $90 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $90 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $90 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $90 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $90 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $89 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $89 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $89 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $89 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $89 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $89 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $89 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $89 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? SELL No 78¢ $89 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $114 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.12 · official $91.12 (match) · 127 history records