Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
58 0x587c…603f crypto 322 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%177W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$154
14 days−$150
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$65
weather 28% +$43
sports 13% −$59
other 3% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +10.0% -0.5% 69% 69% -13.0%
≤30d 125 +4.5% -5.5% 74% 74% -10.5%
≤90d 318 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 54% -11.8%
all 318 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 54% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 54% -11.8%
10% -20.1% 45% -20.3%
15% -27.9% 30% -28.0%
20% -34.9% 19% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses177 / 141
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)318 / 322
History coverage57d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 71¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 80¢ 93¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 78¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 72¢ 55¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $154 −$50 -33%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$194 -94%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$27 -13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$167 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +75%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $8 +$5 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 +$13 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$10 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$8 +96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $8 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $8 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $8 +$4 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 08 $5 +$3 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $8 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 07 $8 +$6 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $51 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 64¢ $141 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 76¢ $84 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $73 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $106 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 73¢ $472 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 52¢ $10 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $8 38h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $6 45h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $3 45h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.51 · official $39.51 (match) · 1130 history records