Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x587b…5453 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized +$4 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate78%25W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$10
sports 35% −$2
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -15.3% -23.3% 73% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -12.4% -20.7% 78% 6% -9.5%
all 32 -12.4% -20.7% 78% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 6% -9.5%
10% -28.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -35.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -41.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,318
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses25 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage102d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,315 $1,314 −$1 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $4 −$10 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 25 $1,313 +$1 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $912 +$1 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $157 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Trade" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $400 $0 +0%
Will Devin Vassell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $400 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $175 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $337 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $42 −$16 -37%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $148 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $148 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $33 +$8 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in May? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs FORZE Esports (BO3) - BetBoo May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting on Mar 28 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,315 1h
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 100¢ $299 2h
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 100¢ $847 2h
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 100¢ $169 3h
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $1,313 3d
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) SELL The World 100¢ $180 8d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $157 9d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $157 9d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 9d
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) SELL The World 100¢ $20 9d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Aterion Esports 100¢ $200 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $912 9d
Will Trump say "Trade" during meeting with French President? BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Aterion Esports 100¢ $200 9d
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) BUY The World 100¢ $200 9d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $175 14d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 15d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $148 16d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $337 17d
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $148 17d
Will Devin Vassell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $400 17d
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $400 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $46 17d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $41 17d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs FORZE Esports (BO3) - BetBoo BUY Aura Farmers 0¢ $1 29d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 29d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 29d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 29d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 29d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,317.53 · official $1,317.53 (match) · 160 history records