Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5879…0619 politics 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$21
other 2% −$2
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 89 -9.1% -17.7% 6% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -9.7%
10% -25.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage696d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 28 $53 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lowry be the Republican nominee for TX-21? Feb 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Nov 25 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fiorentina win the Serie A? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Braga win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? Jan 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russell Wilson win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
U.S. Recession in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Berachain airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Dec 19 $0 $0 -4%
Will Szymon Hołownia be the next President of Poland? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Dec 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in November? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will Auburn win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the NFC East? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is call Nov 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 14h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $52 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $52 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 29d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 30d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 44d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 44d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 53d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 54d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $53 68d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $53 68d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 74d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 74d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 85d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 86d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 88d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 88d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 98d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 98d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 98d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 101d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 102d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 102d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 102d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 104d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 104d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records