Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5874…64c3 sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,299 (+41%) realized +$6,303 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%55W / 73L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days+$712
14 days+$5,844
30 days+$6,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$6,173
other 9% −$20
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +9.5% -1.0% 50% 50% +17.3%
≤30d 109 +3.2% -6.6% 45% 43% +29.9%
≤90d 128 -1.3% -10.7% 43% 41% +27.8%
all 128 -1.3% -10.7% 43% 41% +27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 41% +27.8%
10% -19.3% 41% +15.6%
15% -27.1% 40% +4.4%
20% -34.2% 38% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$65 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized+$6,303
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses55 / 73
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions5
Markets (closed)128 / 134
History coverage34d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 68¢ 74¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $252 −$214 -85%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$44 +216%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $254 +$237 +93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$337 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$202 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $178 +$271 +152%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $153 +$232 +152%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$53 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $46 −$45 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $153 +$242 +158%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $178 −$175 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 +$232 +114%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 +$71 +140%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5,066 +$5,244 +104%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$201 +197%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $26 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$168 +165%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$71 -70%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $51 +$101 +197%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $74 −$73 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 31 $25 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $50 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 22¢ $4 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $51 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 63¢ $48 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $51 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $51 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 19¢ $48 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $127 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 7¢ $37 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $252 29h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 46h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $51 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $20 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $102 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 39¢ $153 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $13 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $178 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $51 4d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 35¢ $153 4d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) SELL Team WE 100¢ $100 6d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 50¢ $51 6d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.02 · official $388.26 · 232 history records