Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5873…d3fd other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$7
politics 11% −$2
culture 9% −$2
economics 8% −$1
world 7% −$1
tech 7% −$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$878) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage93d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 30 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,005 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 28 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? May 11 $104 −$1 -1%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $858 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $860 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 04 $889 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 04 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 48m
Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,039 56m
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $990 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $817 2h
Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 2h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 2h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $978 37h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $23 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 37h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $979 37h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 37h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $770 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 37h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $269 38h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 38h
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL No 93¢ $103 49d
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $86 49d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 49d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 49d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 49d
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $18 49d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 49d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 49d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 49d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records