Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5872…4b29 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,479 (-1%) realized −$1,479 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$793per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$20
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$203
politics 32% −$41
sports 11% −$1,332
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
world 1% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -1.5% -10.9% 3% 0% -10.9%
all 142 -2.7% -12.0% 18% 8% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 8% -10.7%
10% -20.4% 8% -19.3%
15% -28.1% 6% -27.1%
20% -35.1% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,063) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$949
Realized−$1,479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 144
History coverage156d
Avg bet$793
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $631 $631 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $318 $318 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $301 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,280 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,068 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $997 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,142 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $418 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,138 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $786 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 19 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $3,182 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $2,480 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,336 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $680 +$1 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $358 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $332 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $2,071 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,902 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,372 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,049 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,843 −$4 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $1,065 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $318 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $301 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $301 2h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 3h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $201 6h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $475 23h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $475 24h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $631 30h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $735 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $736 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $719 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $720 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $751 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $752 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $787 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $788 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $909 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $889 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $890 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $995 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $997 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $891 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $892 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $807 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $808 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $879 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $880 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $988 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $990 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $949.11 · official $949.11 (match) · 445 history records