Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
58 0x586f…b928 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$300 (-1%) realized +$1,314 · open −$1,614
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%36W / 21L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$728
7 days+$1,131
14 days+$1,131
30 days+$1,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$803
finance 33% −$175
other 21% −$930
world 11% +$9
sports 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +73.4% +56.9% 80% 60% +15.6%
≤30d 6 +44.5% +30.7% 67% 50% +15.4%
≤90d 46 +59.7% +44.5% 65% 50% -2.4%
all 57 +42.3% +28.7% 63% 42% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.7% 42% -3.4%
10% +16.4% 25% -12.7%
15% +5.2% 18% -21.1%
20% -5.1% 14% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +63% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$70 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$2,715
Realized+$1,314
Unrealized−$1,614
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses36 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)57 / 74
History coverage149d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,719 $1,099 −$620 (-36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $291 $436 +$146 (+50%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $326 $268 −$58 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $312 $267 −$45 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 49¢ 26¢ $198 $104 −$94 (-48%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 10¢ $654 $85 −$569 (-87%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 66¢ 18¢ $285 $79 −$206 (-72%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $113 $53 −$60 (-53%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes $31 $17 −$14 (-45%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $17 $8 −$10 (-56%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $6 −$14 (-70%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $2 −$18 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $603 +$748 +124%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 16 $3,415 +$335 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 22 $303 +$24 +8%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $88 −$71 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 20 $163 −$42 -26%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $2,637 +$339 +13%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $109 +$12 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $201 +$63 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $41 +$25 +62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 15 $576 +$117 +20%
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? May 15 $15 +$2 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $73 +$17 +23%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $202 +$36 +18%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $82 −$31 -38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $1,005 +$98 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $1,703 −$640 -38%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 29 $20 −$14 -71%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $1,627 +$266 +16%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 29 $213 −$9 -4%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $15 −$3 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 23 $1,003 +$95 +10%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $18 +$8 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Apr 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $1,557 +$172 +11%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $30 +$8 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 19 $52 −$3 -6%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $71 −$49 -70%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%? Apr 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Apr 10 $1 +$14 +1992%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 08 $1,116 +$218 +20%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $30 +$19 +62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 07 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March? Apr 01 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $1,096 −$8 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $740 −$340 -46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Mar 29 $31 −$4 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Mar 29 $86 −$7 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 27? Mar 28 $28 +$3 +11%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $77 −$33 -43%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 3? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of February? Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 14 $116 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $1,351 49m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 46h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $15 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,715.14 · official $2,715.09 (match) · 723 history records