Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x586f…72f6 crypto 220 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (256 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate77%168W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day256.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (256 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 54% -10.2%
≤30d 219 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 54% -10.2%
≤90d 219 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 54% -10.2%
all 219 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 54% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 54% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -18.8%
15% -27.3% 6% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses168 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 220
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day256.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 75¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$9 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$10 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$9 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $19 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $22 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $18 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $19 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $18 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.67 · official $9.43 · 496 history records