Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x586d…a22e crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$21
sports 26% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +25.2% +13.3% 75% 67% +29.2%
≤30d 12 +25.2% +13.3% 75% 67% +29.2%
≤90d 12 +25.2% +13.3% 75% 67% +29.2%
all 12 +25.2% +13.3% 75% 67% +29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.3% 67% +29.2%
10% ← realistic here +2.5% 58% +16.9%
15% -7.4% 42% +5.6%
20% -16.5% 25% -4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$16 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $24 +$19 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$17 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 55¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records