Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
58 0x586d…c682 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$331 (+25%) realized +$405 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$268
14 days+$324
30 days+$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$175
crypto 19% +$91
sports 3% −$1
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 42% +12.2%
≤30d 21 -14.4% -22.5% 48% 43% +14.3%
≤90d 21 -14.4% -22.5% 48% 43% +14.3%
all 21 -14.4% -22.5% 48% 43% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 43% +14.3%
10% -29.9% 43% +3.4%
15% -36.7% 38% -6.6%
20% -42.9% 29% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$19 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$405
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 68¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $51 +$63 +123%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $50 +$28 +57%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 26 $240 +$90 +38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $73 −$72 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $50 −$49 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $86 +$47 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $227 +$94 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $150 +$78 +52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 20h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 23h
Senegal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 25h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 27h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $330 45h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $240 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $10 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $73 3d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $134 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $86 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $227 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $150 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.22 · official $6.22 (match) · 34 history records