Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
58 0x586c…597d other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% $0
politics 21% −$1
sports 16% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage108d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $90 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $184 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $93 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 25 $93 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $93 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $90 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $90 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $90 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $90 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 24d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $90 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $91 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $91 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $91 37d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $91 41d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $91 41d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $91 43d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $91 44d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $91 44d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $91 45d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 48d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 49d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 67d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 67d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $93 71d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $93 72d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $93 79d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $6 80d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $48 80d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $38 80d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $93 82d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $93 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records