Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x586b…52d9 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$75 (-10%) realized −$77 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$4
other 39% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -24.1% -31.3% 39% 39% -22.9%
≤30d 18 -24.1% -31.3% 39% 39% -22.9%
≤90d 18 -24.1% -31.3% 39% 39% -22.9%
all 18 -24.1% -31.3% 39% 39% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 39% -22.9%
10% -37.9% 39% -30.3%
15% -43.9% 33% -37.0%
20% -49.4% 28% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$28 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage19d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 46¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $35 +$12 +33%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $89 +$71 +80%
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Elitzur Netanya Jun 22 $31 +$24 +78%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Jun 22 $31 +$24 +78%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $35 +$75 +214%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 −$90 -59%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $46 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 6h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $55 11h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 74¢ $35 12h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $35 13h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $47 16h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon BUY Hugo Gaston 55¢ $31 21h
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Elitzur Netanya BUY Hapoel Galil Elyon 55¢ $31 21h
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Twisted Minds 64¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 58¢ $31 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $35 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $61 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $63 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 22¢ $5 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 6d
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid BUY La Laguna Tenerife 26¢ $10 19d
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic BUY Robin Montgomery 63¢ $14 19d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.63 · official $116.63 (match) · 40 history records