Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5867…2e20 sports 676 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,810 (-9%) realized −$1,800 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%221W / 454L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$267
14 days−$310
30 days−$958
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,590
other 3% +$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -21.9% -29.3% 36% 36% -21.7%
≤30d 140 -26.2% -33.2% 29% 29% -29.2%
≤90d 675 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 31% -21.1%
all 675 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 31% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 31% -21.1%
10% -34.7% 29% -28.7%
15% -41.0% 25% -35.5%
20% -46.8% 20% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$20 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,800
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses221 / 454
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions1
Markets (closed)675 / 676
History coverage89d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs Power Rangers 52¢ 34¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 438 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $29 −$19 -65%
Valorant: Team Solid vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 23 $34 +$36 +108%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 +$41 +150%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $26 −$17 -68%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $73 +$28 +38%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $100 −$70 -70%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $16 +$48 +292%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $85 +$12 +14%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $37 +$56 +152%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 +$26 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $141 −$139 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $58 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $52 +$15 +28%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $20 +$79 +388%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$72 +72%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $87 +$17 +19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $143 −$141 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $75 +$58 +77%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $78 −$76 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $46 +$135 +295%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $38 +$63 +167%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$9 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $11 +$35 +309%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 52¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $60 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 3¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 11¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 19¢ $10 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 81¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 47¢ $10 3h
Valorant: Team Solid vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In SELL INTZ 99¢ $46 14h
Valorant: Team Solid vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In SELL INTZ 94¢ $23 14h
Valorant: Team Solid vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In BUY INTZ 46¢ $34 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $68 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 16h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY KRÜ Spark 42¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr BUY ALKA 18¢ $26 19h
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group BUY ENERGYULTRA 11¢ $4 19h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 3¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl SELL Misa Esports 8¢ $7 22h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY Misa Esports 20¢ $26 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $31 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 38¢ $12 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 33¢ $51 24h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 16¢ $21 24h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 71¢ $69 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 61¢ $61 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 65¢ $64 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 16¢ $16 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 51¢ $27 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 52¢ $28 26h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 20¢ $26 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.62 · official $19.62 (match) · 1335 history records