Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5861…17fe tech 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$155 (+17%) realized +$158 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$200
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$155
other 29% −$3
crypto 8% $0
tech 5% $0
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 50% +81.8%
≤90d 5 +23.4% +11.7% 80% 40% +18.0%
all 14 +8.6% -1.8% 93% 14% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 14% +12.3%
10% -11.2% 14% +1.5%
15% -19.8% 14% -8.3%
20% -27.6% 14% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$179 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage169d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $247 $244 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $176 +$200 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $132 +$134 +101%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? May 18 $11 $0 +1%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $181 −$179 -99%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Mar 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Feb 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? Feb 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $90 on January 10? Jan 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 09 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.94 · official $243.94 (match) · 29 history records