Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x5860…8b52 other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$538 (-6%) realized −$658 · open +$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%26W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$463
14 days−$972
30 days−$1,063
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$248
sports 18% −$399
world 17% −$19
culture 4% +$15
politics 1% +$25
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.4% -29.8% 60% 30% -54.4%
≤30d 28 -22.1% -29.5% 54% 32% -33.9%
≤90d 41 -15.2% -23.3% 63% 44% -19.6%
all 41 -15.2% -23.3% 63% 44% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 44% -19.6%
10% -30.6% 12% -27.3%
15% -37.3% 5% -34.3%
20% -43.5% 2% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$94 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1,215
Realized−$658
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses26 / 15
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage77d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 59¢ 66¢ $414 $465 +$52 (+12%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $371 $416 +$44 (+12%)
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 75¢ 83¢ $225 $249 +$24 (+11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $84 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $73 +$11 +16%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 26 $75 −$3 -4%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $70 +$5 +8%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $67 +$3 +5%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $54 +$13 +24%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $45 +$10 +21%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $42 +$3 +6%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 22 $302 −$302 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $135 −$135 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$11 -21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $148 +$10 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $306 +$34 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $437 +$63 +14%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $131 +$69 +52%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 10 $195 −$142 -73%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $184 +$16 +8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $337 +$63 +19%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $18 +$2 +8%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $24 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $201 +$34 +17%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 02 $21 −$15 -72%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $350 −$173 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $245 +$48 +20%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $581 +$69 +12%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $266 +$34 +13%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $333 +$14 +4%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $744 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $141 +$43 +31%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $296 +$88 +30%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 24 $65 +$25 +38%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $4 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $85 16m
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $85 17m
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $73 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 90¢ $73 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 93¢ $75 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $70 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $67 24h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $54 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $45 3d
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 94¢ $42 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $40 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $51 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $135 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 19¢ $9 8d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $10 8d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 73¢ $302 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $31 10d
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 11d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 79¢ $148 11d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 79¢ $10 11d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 74¢ $148 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 13d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Mexico 42¢ $42 14d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 51¢ $51 14d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 65¢ $131 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $437 15d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 89¢ $14 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,214.80 · official $1,214.80 (match) · 181 history records